Take five: China GDP, income and a messy divorce

© Reuters/KAI PFAFFENBACH FILE photo: Bull and endure symbols for a hit and dangerous buying and selling are viewed in front of the German stock alternate (Deutsche Boerse) in Frankfurt

(Reuters) - 1/ seeking to CHINA

China's third-quarter increase facts comes out on Monday and may exhibit the consequences of the pandemic receding. the realm's second-greatest economic climate is expected to have grown 5.2% in July-September from a year prior, quicker than the 2nd quarter's 3.2%, in keeping with a Reuters poll.

The yuan is priced for it and the global recuperation well-nigh is dependent upon it, as chinese language demand and creation preserve the realm economic system ticking over.

a strong studying will assist policymakers' prudence, with Tuesday prone to bring in a sixth straight month with China's benchmark activity fee on hold.

A rebound is also anticipated in retail spending, one soft spot. That might herald greater spending globally when the virus ebbs.

- China's financial recovery considered broadening in Q3 as buyers re-emerge - chinese critical financial institution injects 500 bln yuan of medium-term loans, fees unchanged for sixth month

graphic: China's recovery attracts capital flows https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/yxmvjjlnbvr/Pastedpercent20imagep.c201602831262708.png

2/ MESSY DIVORCE

Britain's messy divorce with the eu Union is likely to stay in the highlight, holding the pound jittery according to comments from either side about even if or not a exchange deal is likely before a final Dec. 31 deadline.

european leaders agreed at their Oct. 15-sixteen summit to greater talks however are competent for no deal. The three leading areas of competition are reasonable competitors, dispute resolution and fisheries.

The pound could profit from indications the united kingdom will no longer give up the talks. however the prospect of negotiations dragging on, undermining the economic outlook just because the coronavirus instances rise once more, might weigh on sterling.

- european tells Britain to provide floor to relaxed exchange deal, UK to respond Friday

- UK PM Johnson says it be time to put together for a no-change deal Brexit

picture: Sterling continues to be beneath pre-Brexit degrees https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/yxmpjjlbbpr/Sterling%20remainsp.c20below%20pre-Brexitpercent20levels.png

three/ BEACON OF HOPE

simply as tighter European restrictions to comprise COVID-19 fuel concern about economic pastime, the third-quarter salary season about to delivery in earnest can also show a beacon of hope.

in accordance with Refinitiv I/B/E/S information, analysts are increasingly upbeat on earnings from companies listed on the pan-European STOXX 600 index <.STOXX>.

The expected decline, which peaked at greater than 50% all the way through spring when a huge a part of Europe turned into under strict lockdown, has softened to an average drop of 36.7% 12 months-on-year, down from a 40% decline forecast a month in the past.

there is speak that analyst estimates can be too conservative. The STOXX 600 is at the moment buying and selling just below the mid-point of the ten-percent-point latitude it has held considering the fact that June. a good third quarter could push shares higher.

- Q3 season: Room for effective surprises?

- Daimler posts forecast-beating consequences

photo: Europe lags U.S. in earnings recuperation https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/buzz/qzjvqajbavx/Pasted%20imagepercent201602774550419.png

four/ energy AND ELECTIONS

next week also brings power-sector earnings. Haliburton experiences on Monday, Baker Hughes and Kinder Morgan on Wednesday. Uneven global boom and abundant give have compelled power expenditures all over U.S. President Donald Trump's time period, with U.S. crude expenditures down around 20% considering Trump's January 2017 inauguration. power is the simplest essential sector within the S&P to be in the red considering that then.

A November election win for Democratic challenger Joe Biden may deliver greater unease about enhanced regulation and an emphasis on green policies.

So, keep away from energy stocks? perhaps no longer -- Goldman Sachs does not predict the U.S. election to trade its bullish outlook and reckons an awesome Democratic victory may well be a good catalyst for the sector.

- How a Biden presidency would radically change the U.S. power panorama

- U.S. election influence will no longer influence bullish energy outlook: Goldman

graphic: S&P 500 sector performance when you consider that Trump inauguration https://pix.reuters.com/international-MARKETS/subject matters/bdwpkjdokvm/chart.png

5/ DÉJÀ VU?

The tone in markets all at once looks to have echoes of March, when the coronavirus outbreak in Europe sparked a touch into secure-haven bonds and money.

improved restrictions to contain a second wave, together with in capitals similar to London and Paris, are fuelling unease. protected-haven German 10-yr bond yields have tumbled 10 bps to degrees closing viewed in March; and alongside U.S. and UK yields are set for the largest weekly drop in months.

investors at the moment are looking at for indications of economic damage -- the October flash paying for supervisor index numbers for the euro zone are due out Friday.

no longer all bond markets will improvement from the jitters. Italian bond yields, which simply a few days in the past hit checklist lows on expectations of more significant bank stimulus, have been damage as investors ditch riskier belongings. it truly is what happened in March. Déjà vu, any individual?

- German bond yields fall to lowest since March as COVID circumstances surge

- New coronavirus infections upward push to listing highs in U.S. Midwest and past

photo: feel of deja vu in bond markets https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gjnvwlwadpw/THEME1610.png

(Reporting via Elizabeth Howcroft, Julien Ponthus, Dhara Ranasinghe and Tommy Wilkes in London; Danilo Masoni in Milan, Tom Westbook in Singapore and Rodrigo Campos in ny; enhancing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Larry King)